What could 2023 hold for UK immigration?

A tougher line on immigration has been promised by the current home secretary, Suella Braverman: what could this mean for UK employers already struggling to fill roles and how should companies and HR start preparing?

Thanks to Brexit, the global pandemic, change in prime minister, various home secretaries over the last 12 months and the UK Visas & Immigration (UKVI) plan to digitise the visa process, it is no surprise that significant changes are likely to the application process.

There is likely to be more focus on high-skilled immigration initially and employers will continue to benefit from existing categories such as the skilled worker, high potential individual (HPIs) scheme and the graduate visa, and any potential new measures that would need to be examined first for suitability.

There has been whispers of the return of the highly skilled migrant scheme, but they have been merely whispers, nothing has been confirmed by the UKVI in this regard. It is clear that due to the abuse of the previous highly skilled migrant programme/tier 1 (general) scheme, the UKVI is likely to be cautious about rushing into opening this scheme or something similar and this will be something to look out for further in the future.

There has been speculation that lower-skilled occupations could be added to the shortage occupation list. This speculation has been ongoing for some time. While this looks like a good idea, for employers it may not be an attractive one, mainly due to the fact that an immigration skills charge still remains and can be up to £1000 per year.

In addition applicants still need to pay submission fees and the Immigration Health Surcharge per applicant which may not be feasible for these applicants.

So, unless the government makes certain jobs exempt from these charges, or lowers them dramatically, adding lower skilled roles to the shortage list would not effectively impact on shortages as lower numbers of employers will choose this route due to the costs.

It was also suggested that other options might include withdrawing the English language requirement and speeding up visa processing. It is hard to see the UKVI removing the English language requirement and there has been no further updates in this regard. In relation to the visa processing, there have been significant delays of late. While there have been some small improvements, there are still some applicants waiting six to eight months for a decision. The UKVI would probably benefit from getting its processing within current published timescales before promising faster services it is not ready to deliver.

Consideration is being given to the limitation on student's ability to bring dependants with them to the UK as well as limit the students access to the job market, unless they are sponsored. This could see a fall in the number of overseas students coming to the UK. This in turn could mean fewer future graduates for UK employers.

Given the current climate, it is likely we will see a change of policy in 2023 rather than a dramatic overhaul of the system. Therefore, HR teams and recruitment teams should plan ahead, factor in long waiting times for visas and ensure they have the tools in place (like a sponsor licence) to meet their recruitment needs.

Feel free to contact one of our team to discuss these potential developments or if you need assistance with a licence application or maintenance of a licence.