UK immigration: what's on the horizon?

"No more gimmicks. No more gesture politics. No more irresponsible, undeliverable promises.” These were the words of Sir Keir Starmer at a recent Interpol conference on immigration. The UK prime minister was building on the position he had laid out on immigration at the Labour Party conference in September, in which he said: “It is the policy of this government to reduce both net migration and our economic dependency upon it.”

In the 12 months to June this year, net migration to the UK was just 728,000, down from just over 900,000 in the 12 months ending June 2023. The reduction in net migration to June is largely down to a reduction in approvals in two main visa categories: international students and healthcare workers. Due to a change by the previous Conservative government, these two categories are now prevented from bringing their dependants with them. While this has had a significant impact on numbers, it may also be a time bomb – both the universities and the healthcare sector rely heavily on international migrants. Already universities are stating that fees for UK nationals will rise to cover the loss of income from overseas. Healthcare was also already struggling with unfilled vacancies.  

Domestic skill shortage

Successive governments have all vowed to reduce this number – the Conservative government previously wanting to reduce it to "tens of thousands" – without success. Aside from the questionable logic of having a numbers-based policy, the bigger issue is how to address a domestic skills shortage at the same time as addressing perceived public concern over international workers in the UK. The new Labour government is yet to announce any detailed plans for immigration, but changes can be expected to the Immigration Rules.

In a speech earlier this month, the prime minister announced plans to publish a white paper that he said would link the ability to sponsor migrant workers to training “people here in our country”. He said the white paper would set out the government's plan to reduce immigration. The Migration Advisory Committee is already conducting a review, which will form the basis of reform of the points-based system that will aim to make sure that, alongside applications for visa routes, there will be new requirements for training UK residents.

Labour reform plans

Over the last couple of years, Labour has clearly indicated its wish to create a link between the ability to sponsor foreign workers and upskilling the domestic workforce, which culminated in the reference to “workforce training plans” in the 2024 Labour election manifesto.

Labour's plans for reform include:

• Ensuring all employers that are able to sponsor visas are meeting decent standards of pay and conditions.
• Speed up visa delays to avoid labour shortages damaging the economy.
• Introduce training and plans for improving pay and conditions for roles that require international recruitment.
• Reforming the Migration Advisory Committee to project future trends more accurately.

While Labour has confirmed that there will be no return to freedom of movement with the EU, there are credible rumours of EU negotiators pressing for an expansion of youth mobility-type arrangements with the UK despite a reported pushback from the Labour government.

Osborne Clarke comment

The rhetoric around immigration and reducing numbers is nothing new, but it does appear that the government  is looking to take a different approach to its predecessors in not setting numerical targets but, instead, seeking to take the approach of reducing the need of employers for overseas workers.

While we cannot say one way or the other, we are seeing a dramatic decrease in the time taken to process most normal visa applications. This could be a sign of increased resourcing and a desire to increase the efficiency of the immigration system.

As with most announcements, the devil will be in the detail. Hopefully, by the time the Immigration Rules are amended, expert and informed advice will have been taken to ensure that any change has the effect of improving the UK economy and its attraction to international investment. Only time will tell, but one point that is certain is that this approach will not be a quick resolution to the numbers we so often see in the news and would need to extend well beyond the next election cycle.