The Energy Transition | Future Energy Scenarios report maps GB net-zero paths

This week we look at the new Future Energy Scenarios report, proposed legislation targeting 99% reliability for rapid EV chargers, and results of ESO's Demand Flexibility Service.

ESO publishes Future Energy Scenarios report

On 10 July, the Electricity System Operator (ESO) published its Future Energy Scenarios 2023 report, which identifies four different pathways that Great Britain could take to achieve net zero.

The first pathway, "System Transformation", has net zero achieved by 2050 through significant supply side changes and limited consumer changes. Typical consumer changes in this scenario include uptake of hydrogen boilers and electric vehicles.

The second pathway, "Consumer Transformation", explores the 2050 net-zero target being met through greater consumer engagement, with typical consumers extensively altering their homes to improve energy efficiency.

"Leading the Way" is the third pathway, which envisions net zero being met in 2046 as a result of high-intensity investment into world-leading decarbonising technologies.

In the final pathway, "Falling Short", the 2050 net zero target is missed due to slow-moving decarbonisation.

The ESO has provided several recommendations to achieve net zero successfully, including:

• policy measures to reduce investment uncertainty in net zero, such as heat pump incentives and a decision on the use of hydrogen for heating;
• increased consumer engagement and digitalisation, in order to increase access to information;
• improved market signals and new distributed flexibility solutions, including reform to provide new locational signals to optimise flexible energy sources; and
• coordinated and strategic development across the whole energy system, including connections reform.

New legislation targets 99% reliability for rapid EV chargers

The government has laid out new regulations in Parliament for public electric vehicle (EV) charge points. The proposals, contained in the draft Public Charge Point Regulations 2023, aim to combat current challenges around EV charging.

The regulations will require rapid EV charge points to meet a minimum level of 99% reliability, on average. Charge point operators (CPOs) will be required to provide an annual report to the secretary of state in respect of their network reliability.

Within one year of the regulations coming into force, all existing rapid charge points and any new charge points over 8 kW capacity will need to incorporate contactless payment methods. In addition, CPOs will be required to introduce payment roaming within two years of the legislation coming into force. This will enable EV users to charge their vehicles at any charge point, regardless of their choice of provider. CPOs will also be required to provide free helplines, available 24 hours a day.

Through these proposed changes, the government hopes to "boost confidence and ensure a consistent experience". The regulations include fines of up to £10,000 per public charge point or network of rapid charge points for CPOs who fail to comply with the requirements.

Hornsea Project Four Offshore Wind Farm granted development consent

The government has issued development consent for the Hornsea Project Four Offshore Wind Farm. The initial planning application was submitted by Danish offshore wind developer Ørsted in September 2021.

The newly approved fourth phase of the Hornsea windfarm will have over 2.6 GW of capacity. The project will consist of up to 180 wind turbines located off the Yorkshire coast, making it the second-largest wind farm to receive government approval, after the Hornsea Three project, which has a capacity of just over 2.8 GW.

In a decision letter relating to the consent order, the secretary of state for energy security and net zero stated that despite the project having environmental implications, "the urgent need for low carbon energy infrastructure" outweighed the concern.

Ørsted is now in the process of reviewing the development consent and is looking to work with stakeholders and local communities to move forward with the next phase of the project. The developer stated that "Offshore wind projects such as Hornsea 4 are key to the UK’s energy security and will bring billions of pounds of investment into the UK, provide low-cost electricity for consumers and thousands of high-quality jobs."

ESO seeks to learn from Demand Flexibility Service

The ESO has published a report on its 2022/23 Demand Flexibility Service (DFS), confirming that 1.6 million households participated under in the scheme. In total a reduction of 3,300MWh of electricity was delivered in the scheme, which ran from November 2022 to March 2023.

The report, undertaken by independent charity Centre for Sustainable Energy on behalf of the ESO, sought to understand consumer experiences of the DFS. The DFS is the largest demand response scheme to have taken place on Britain’s electricity network to date, consisting of twenty test events and two live events.

Results of the report showed that 62% of respondents had a positive experience of the DFS, with 83% stating that they would participate again. Respondents stated that the main challenges of the scheme were the perceived low level of incentivisation and a lack of fairness within the scheme itself. Households with higher and more flexible demand were rewarded more significantly than those with lower demands.

The report includes a number of recommendations to improve future iterations of the scheme, such as increased transparency around the reward system and widening the public debate around energy system flexibility.  The ESO has confirmed that it intends to use the DFS in winter 2023/24. 

Commenting on the report, Claire Dykta, head of markets at the ESO, said, “Alongside the formal consultation process and wide-ranging engagement already underway, this analysis will support us in leveraging the success and lessons learned of last year’s scheme."

This article was written with the assistance of Jack Duffy and Sophie Myatt, trainee solicitors